Jan 8, 2022·edited Jan 8, 2022Liked by Igor Chudov
Ok, I'll throw in some personal experience here. Puzzling, to say the least. My son and his girlfriend were both here last Sunday thru Wednesday. Both of them fairly certainly had the original Covid in November-December 2019...they were at UC Davis then, a school that has a huge percentage of students from China and most especially, from Wuhan area. At the time, the doctors were totally puzzled about what they, and so many others in the area, were suffering from. They said "Something weird is going around and we don't know what it is." They were both fairly sick, but were fine after a couple of weeks. Therefore, I feel they had Covid and therefore would have natural immunity. They have both been fine since that time (almost 2 years), and are both unvaccinated. So back to 3 days ago, Wed. night of this week. They both became sick quite suddenly, by 6 a.m. Thursday, they went to the local hospital (this is CA) and she got a test that was positive for Covid, however they determined that. The same hospital wouldn't accept my son's insurance and they couldn't find a local test either, so he went untested. Did the hospital or anyone else give a damn about his status, whether he should be "counted" anywhere, whether he would spread it etc.? Nope, not an issue. So they went home, both were sick Thursday & Friday. He was a bit worse off than she was....headaches, muscle aches, fatigue, dizziness, no appetite. They basically just stayed in bed, drank tons of water, took a lot of vitamins such as D3, C, zinc. This morning he texted that he feels so much better now, he was able to sleep last night, so overall it was mostly a 48 hour thing at the worst. My son said this was similar to what they had in Nov. 2019 but milder. Finally, as I said, they were here with us (parents) and we are 72 and 75 (unvaxxed). We've been popping all the vitamin protocols for months, we exercise a lot and are in great health and are slim, and thus far we don't seem to have caught whatever they had even though they were here in the house up through Wednesday. Hard to know if it was Delta or Omicron. Or perhaps just a flu that they are pretending is Covid. So far so good, anyhow.
I think that we are approaching a lengthy period where vaccine deaths will be hidden by any means possible. Maybe you could build a model and find some numbers for it. Not trying to be funny or disrespectful.
I'm a big fan of your newsletter. If I understand your statistics, you are predicting a big surge in deaths because Omicron is more deadly than expected. It seems that your conclusions are disagreeing with many other statisticians publishing data to show that Omicron is rarely deadly. In fact some people claim Omicron has almost zero deaths. I guess, like you, I will wait for future statistics to indicate whether Omicron is more lethal than Delta.
New York State has now reported which of the hospitalized are there because of Covid and which have tested positive while there for something else…. “New York has its first official breakdown of what share of people are hospitalized for COVID vs. how many are hospitalized with incidental COVID. In NYC it's 49% for COVID, everyone else just happened to test positive.”
Vax is a bioweapon as we now see the majority of hospitalisation and deaths worldwide are double vaxxed and boosted. Everything is going exactly as planned. Vax is destroying people's immune system insuring the perpetual pandemic, The entire plandemic was prescripted years in advance including the 'variants". They are Mocking people while slowly destroying them.
I am following the Danish experience of Omicron very closely and, have to say, that there is no evidence at present that the Omicron strain is anything other than a mild disease in the vast majority of people and quickly resolved even in those who do become sick.
Using the health authorities' Omicron reports, (https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/omikron) it is possible to calculate the key hospital admission rates, and death rates. Allowing for a 5 day lag for the admission rates and a 14 day lag for the death rates, (that is using the UK margins), there is a 0.5% rate for hospital admissions up to the 28th December, and a 0.04% death rate up to the 2nd January. That is to say, 1 in 200 having to go to hospital with Omicron and a risk of 1 in 2500 of dying. So between 6 to 10 times less dangerous than Delta.
The running aggregate for hospital admissions has also fallen for the last five days in a row, after record amount of people tested positive over the Xmas period, (around 15-17% positive rate in the tests, which for several days was the highest in the world).
It seems very likely that the minor uptick in hospital admissions up to the 3rd January was down to the residue of Delta infections working their way through the population. It is easily overlooked that there was a 2nd Delta wave from October to December in Denmark, which only peaked on 13th December at 7480 positive tests. Even up to New Year, there were still over a thousand Delta infections every day. So, of course, the much higher admission and death rates will still be influencing the overall figures for a while yet.
I suspect that this is what is happening in many other places, including the US, and the residue of Delta is being wrongly interpreted as deriving from Omicron. ^
Of course, we need to keep a very close eye on developments, especially as governments and health officials do everything to keep the fear alive by failing to distinguish between Delta and Omicron in the public presentation of the figures. After all, a disease of such moderation cannot be used to justify mass compulsory vaccination or any other public restrictions. An almighty struggle over these questions is imminent.
Over the next few weeks, we should see the trends in Denmark repeated elsewhere as Omicron displaces Delta more completely, with at first stable hospital rates, and then declining rates for both admissions and deaths.
Jan 8, 2022·edited Jan 8, 2022Liked by Igor Chudov
Further confounding statistics, all cause mortality for working age (18-65) rose 40% in the last 2 quarters of '21, per CEO of OneAmerica Life Insurance. Not due to covid, per the CEO.
Also per the CEO, a10% rise would be 1 in 200 year event. No # for 4X that, all at once.
Some portion could be delayed care for chronically ill, but the rise correlates suspiciously with vax push last summer, in which case I expected the jump to continue, if not get worse as sheeple booster their immune systems into oblivion.
Denmark, very highly vaxxed, and got an early start on Omicron, does seem to be supporting the idea that Omicron is reasonably mild, but extremely transmissable. Hospitaliation and ICU cases are currently at levels approaching the peak in Jan 2021. Of course number of cases is much higher, so the % of severe illness is lower. 7-day average deaths is around half what it was at the peak last January. But then daily cases peaked at around 3700 per day, currently it's at 26000 cases per day. So cases are x 7 but deaths are x 0.5. It seems as if Omicron may bring about a similar number of deaths and severe illness as Delta, via much higher case rate, but also much lower severity of illness.
Clearly the impact on hospital treatment could be huge unless they allow positive tested doctors and nurses to work. Otherwise hopsitals would suffer such large staff shortages that deaths and severe illness would be even higher. Overall, the impact of Omicron is going to be very significant indeed if Denmark is anything to go by. In Portugal though, with similarly high vax rates, although cases are spiking, deaths are far lower than the Delta peak. So it seems to behave differently in different countries. I suspect though that Portugal was drastically overstating its "covid" deaths in Jan 2021, and maybe under reporting them now. In these highly vaxxed countries, its better for them to downplay illness and deaths, otherwise they face the embarrassment of admitting that vaccines are useless
I think you have an epistemological problem. To wit: until now the modus operandi was to exaggerate the danger of covid. Hospitals paid extra for covid patients, fiddling statistics to scare the peasants into vaccinating a.s.o. For whatever purpose... So if this m.o. is still in place then the numbers you are citing just reflects the scaremongering of the powers that be. That is hospitalisations of people with broken limbs that just happen to also have omikron. I think that is very likely. Of course - as Omikron ist undoubtedly very infectious - the number of "hospitalisations" will just go through the roof. - On the other hand - if Omicron is as bad or worse than Delta and as undoubtedly the vaccinated get infected more - then the powers that be have every reason to downplay the numbers. I don´t know which is true and I believe we will find out only - and if at all - in a few month. By the way: I am German but lived in Russia in the Nineties. I fell in love with Russia but learned Russian on the street. So I used a lot of MAT and must admit it is my favorite language. Unfortunately you cannot use it in polite society. So I took to saying yolkipalki. Later I lived in Poland and as Poles understand Russian mat I kept using yolkipalki. So that is the nickname I acquired in Poland and I have been using it ever since.
Deaths are still in the plateau of the pre-Omicron trend, in the US, for the moment there is virtually zero Omicron excess deaths. I think your model violates that significantly by now.
You're completely ignoring false positives and the certainty that the vast majority of "Omicron cases" and "Covid cases" more generally are false positives. And you're still ignoring the directly related phenomenon of false "Covid hospitalizations" due to either false positives or only incidental positives. It is now widely acknowledged, even by Mr. Fauci himself, that large numbers of "Covid hospitalizations" are "with" not "from" Covid. And yet it is not yet widely acknowledged that the large majority of these data points are false positives.
In sum, until you get your head around the false positive catastrophe you're going to continue to be fundamentally misunderstanding what's going on here.
As you note, its a simple model. The hospitalizations and deaths and cases will scare the heck out of a lot of people and the R rate will slow - lengthening the peak and also increasing the death rate by lengthening the time with a non-functional health care system.
Meanwhile, and contributing to overwhelming the health care system is the (very rapidly growing) vaccine illnesses. And without a functioning health care system even if you rate is too high, deaths will be magnified.
And also magnifying is that most of the PPE and treatment drugs (like IVM and HCQ - monoclonal us useless for Omicron) are sitting off Los Angeles not getting unloaded. Hospitals are already short. The magnified effect is a real unknown, too.
Pieter Streicher of South Africa has been spot on for a long time about such things. If his estimate for London is correct, and we have comparable mortality here, it would be more like 13,000 deaths. A lot less than influenza. Which would mean Omicron is a safer (and more effective) "vaccine" than Pfizer's etc. https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1479874751594209288
Ok, I'll throw in some personal experience here. Puzzling, to say the least. My son and his girlfriend were both here last Sunday thru Wednesday. Both of them fairly certainly had the original Covid in November-December 2019...they were at UC Davis then, a school that has a huge percentage of students from China and most especially, from Wuhan area. At the time, the doctors were totally puzzled about what they, and so many others in the area, were suffering from. They said "Something weird is going around and we don't know what it is." They were both fairly sick, but were fine after a couple of weeks. Therefore, I feel they had Covid and therefore would have natural immunity. They have both been fine since that time (almost 2 years), and are both unvaccinated. So back to 3 days ago, Wed. night of this week. They both became sick quite suddenly, by 6 a.m. Thursday, they went to the local hospital (this is CA) and she got a test that was positive for Covid, however they determined that. The same hospital wouldn't accept my son's insurance and they couldn't find a local test either, so he went untested. Did the hospital or anyone else give a damn about his status, whether he should be "counted" anywhere, whether he would spread it etc.? Nope, not an issue. So they went home, both were sick Thursday & Friday. He was a bit worse off than she was....headaches, muscle aches, fatigue, dizziness, no appetite. They basically just stayed in bed, drank tons of water, took a lot of vitamins such as D3, C, zinc. This morning he texted that he feels so much better now, he was able to sleep last night, so overall it was mostly a 48 hour thing at the worst. My son said this was similar to what they had in Nov. 2019 but milder. Finally, as I said, they were here with us (parents) and we are 72 and 75 (unvaxxed). We've been popping all the vitamin protocols for months, we exercise a lot and are in great health and are slim, and thus far we don't seem to have caught whatever they had even though they were here in the house up through Wednesday. Hard to know if it was Delta or Omicron. Or perhaps just a flu that they are pretending is Covid. So far so good, anyhow.
I think that we are approaching a lengthy period where vaccine deaths will be hidden by any means possible. Maybe you could build a model and find some numbers for it. Not trying to be funny or disrespectful.
I'm a big fan of your newsletter. If I understand your statistics, you are predicting a big surge in deaths because Omicron is more deadly than expected. It seems that your conclusions are disagreeing with many other statisticians publishing data to show that Omicron is rarely deadly. In fact some people claim Omicron has almost zero deaths. I guess, like you, I will wait for future statistics to indicate whether Omicron is more lethal than Delta.
Follow the money....anyone stepping foot in a hospital has Omicron
New York State has now reported which of the hospitalized are there because of Covid and which have tested positive while there for something else…. “New York has its first official breakdown of what share of people are hospitalized for COVID vs. how many are hospitalized with incidental COVID. In NYC it's 49% for COVID, everyone else just happened to test positive.”
Only 49% are hospitalized because of Covid.
Vax is a bioweapon as we now see the majority of hospitalisation and deaths worldwide are double vaxxed and boosted. Everything is going exactly as planned. Vax is destroying people's immune system insuring the perpetual pandemic, The entire plandemic was prescripted years in advance including the 'variants". They are Mocking people while slowly destroying them.
"France Detects New COVID-19 Scariant. More of The Satanic Mockery. Properties of The Numbers 12 and 46 - https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/france-detects-new-covid-19-scariant
Omicron: The Corona End Game The Truth Behind The Symbols https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/the-corona-end-game
I am following the Danish experience of Omicron very closely and, have to say, that there is no evidence at present that the Omicron strain is anything other than a mild disease in the vast majority of people and quickly resolved even in those who do become sick.
Using the health authorities' Omicron reports, (https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/omikron) it is possible to calculate the key hospital admission rates, and death rates. Allowing for a 5 day lag for the admission rates and a 14 day lag for the death rates, (that is using the UK margins), there is a 0.5% rate for hospital admissions up to the 28th December, and a 0.04% death rate up to the 2nd January. That is to say, 1 in 200 having to go to hospital with Omicron and a risk of 1 in 2500 of dying. So between 6 to 10 times less dangerous than Delta.
The running aggregate for hospital admissions has also fallen for the last five days in a row, after record amount of people tested positive over the Xmas period, (around 15-17% positive rate in the tests, which for several days was the highest in the world).
It seems very likely that the minor uptick in hospital admissions up to the 3rd January was down to the residue of Delta infections working their way through the population. It is easily overlooked that there was a 2nd Delta wave from October to December in Denmark, which only peaked on 13th December at 7480 positive tests. Even up to New Year, there were still over a thousand Delta infections every day. So, of course, the much higher admission and death rates will still be influencing the overall figures for a while yet.
I suspect that this is what is happening in many other places, including the US, and the residue of Delta is being wrongly interpreted as deriving from Omicron. ^
Of course, we need to keep a very close eye on developments, especially as governments and health officials do everything to keep the fear alive by failing to distinguish between Delta and Omicron in the public presentation of the figures. After all, a disease of such moderation cannot be used to justify mass compulsory vaccination or any other public restrictions. An almighty struggle over these questions is imminent.
Over the next few weeks, we should see the trends in Denmark repeated elsewhere as Omicron displaces Delta more completely, with at first stable hospital rates, and then declining rates for both admissions and deaths.
Igor.
You are a good man, however from the data I have looked at, SA and Europe, Moronic is a mild pussycat.
It should play out in a week or so.
Best.
Bill
Further confounding statistics, all cause mortality for working age (18-65) rose 40% in the last 2 quarters of '21, per CEO of OneAmerica Life Insurance. Not due to covid, per the CEO.
Also per the CEO, a10% rise would be 1 in 200 year event. No # for 4X that, all at once.
Some portion could be delayed care for chronically ill, but the rise correlates suspiciously with vax push last summer, in which case I expected the jump to continue, if not get worse as sheeple booster their immune systems into oblivion.
Denmark, very highly vaxxed, and got an early start on Omicron, does seem to be supporting the idea that Omicron is reasonably mild, but extremely transmissable. Hospitaliation and ICU cases are currently at levels approaching the peak in Jan 2021. Of course number of cases is much higher, so the % of severe illness is lower. 7-day average deaths is around half what it was at the peak last January. But then daily cases peaked at around 3700 per day, currently it's at 26000 cases per day. So cases are x 7 but deaths are x 0.5. It seems as if Omicron may bring about a similar number of deaths and severe illness as Delta, via much higher case rate, but also much lower severity of illness.
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/denmark/
https://www.sst.dk/en/english/corona-eng/status-of-the-epidemic/covid-19-updates-statistics-and-charts
Clearly the impact on hospital treatment could be huge unless they allow positive tested doctors and nurses to work. Otherwise hopsitals would suffer such large staff shortages that deaths and severe illness would be even higher. Overall, the impact of Omicron is going to be very significant indeed if Denmark is anything to go by. In Portugal though, with similarly high vax rates, although cases are spiking, deaths are far lower than the Delta peak. So it seems to behave differently in different countries. I suspect though that Portugal was drastically overstating its "covid" deaths in Jan 2021, and maybe under reporting them now. In these highly vaxxed countries, its better for them to downplay illness and deaths, otherwise they face the embarrassment of admitting that vaccines are useless
I think you have an epistemological problem. To wit: until now the modus operandi was to exaggerate the danger of covid. Hospitals paid extra for covid patients, fiddling statistics to scare the peasants into vaccinating a.s.o. For whatever purpose... So if this m.o. is still in place then the numbers you are citing just reflects the scaremongering of the powers that be. That is hospitalisations of people with broken limbs that just happen to also have omikron. I think that is very likely. Of course - as Omikron ist undoubtedly very infectious - the number of "hospitalisations" will just go through the roof. - On the other hand - if Omicron is as bad or worse than Delta and as undoubtedly the vaccinated get infected more - then the powers that be have every reason to downplay the numbers. I don´t know which is true and I believe we will find out only - and if at all - in a few month. By the way: I am German but lived in Russia in the Nineties. I fell in love with Russia but learned Russian on the street. So I used a lot of MAT and must admit it is my favorite language. Unfortunately you cannot use it in polite society. So I took to saying yolkipalki. Later I lived in Poland and as Poles understand Russian mat I kept using yolkipalki. So that is the nickname I acquired in Poland and I have been using it ever since.
Deaths are still in the plateau of the pre-Omicron trend, in the US, for the moment there is virtually zero Omicron excess deaths. I think your model violates that significantly by now.
And your 0.8% death rate is vastly too high for any variant let alone Omicron.
You're completely ignoring false positives and the certainty that the vast majority of "Omicron cases" and "Covid cases" more generally are false positives. And you're still ignoring the directly related phenomenon of false "Covid hospitalizations" due to either false positives or only incidental positives. It is now widely acknowledged, even by Mr. Fauci himself, that large numbers of "Covid hospitalizations" are "with" not "from" Covid. And yet it is not yet widely acknowledged that the large majority of these data points are false positives.
Harvard Med School prof. Branch-Elliman explains the math in this piece: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-07-14/why-covid-19-screening-should-be-used-sparingly-in-schools
Tim Chives goes deeper in this piece: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/obscure-maths-bayes-theorem-reliability-covid-lateral-flow-tests-probability
I and my colleagues go even deeper here: https://www.authorea.com/users/61793/articles/527660-the-false-positive-paradox-and-the-risks-of-testing-asymptomatic-people-for-covid-19
We wrote a shorter version at BMJ here: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1411/rr
Webb and Osburn 2021 found 86% of pediatric "Covid hospitalizations" were not related to Covid or only minimally related: https://www.publications.aap.org/hospitalpediatrics/article-abstract/11/8/e133/179737/Characteristics-of-Hospitalized-Children-Positive?redirectedFrom=fulltext
And another study found 85% of a single UK hospital Covid cases were false positives: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7850182/
And our piece on the false positive catastrophe: https://tamhunt.medium.com/the-false-positive-catastrophe-that-results-from-widespread-covid-19-testing-fc6febac8689
In sum, until you get your head around the false positive catastrophe you're going to continue to be fundamentally misunderstanding what's going on here.
As you note, its a simple model. The hospitalizations and deaths and cases will scare the heck out of a lot of people and the R rate will slow - lengthening the peak and also increasing the death rate by lengthening the time with a non-functional health care system.
Meanwhile, and contributing to overwhelming the health care system is the (very rapidly growing) vaccine illnesses. And without a functioning health care system even if you rate is too high, deaths will be magnified.
And also magnifying is that most of the PPE and treatment drugs (like IVM and HCQ - monoclonal us useless for Omicron) are sitting off Los Angeles not getting unloaded. Hospitals are already short. The magnified effect is a real unknown, too.
Pieter Streicher of South Africa has been spot on for a long time about such things. If his estimate for London is correct, and we have comparable mortality here, it would be more like 13,000 deaths. A lot less than influenza. Which would mean Omicron is a safer (and more effective) "vaccine" than Pfizer's etc. https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1479874751594209288