319 Comments
Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

in order to keep the US population growing (and it is), the government will simply allow/encourage more immigration. there are many, many people in the world eager to come to the UK or the US or Sweden.

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

As usual, very interesting thought provoking points. This will be especially true in the Democratic controlled dystopian shitehole big cities.

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There will be significant changes in everything we once believed stable. Long-term decisions are based on actuary, income, disability, and more tables. All the tables of death, injury, and income are changing quickly.

One example is airline pilots who were mandated to take the death serum. The EKG reading to fly is now allowed to be broad, whereas before, they would be grounded under past readings if outside of narrow results—This means up to 70% of pilots have heart damage and are still flying—This is only one example and one industry.

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Jan 18, 2023·edited Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

One silver lining of course is that housing may *finally* become affordable for the masses for the first time in decades.

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

What part of “you’ll own nothing” needs explaining, Igor 😏?

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Sadly, we are not Westonia. Have you also factored in that if women do manage to give birth that their offspring may be sterile as has been suggested? Not to worry, the replacement migration is well underway and I hear that the areas the migrants come from haven't taken the sterilising jabs. I don't share your optimism and am coming to a firmer belief that the virus/jabs are slow kill bioweapons with the jabs having a bit more of a sting in their tail. The coming months will be telling.

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

No worries, we have open borders. Then plan is to kill us off and give our property (house, car, job) to the migrants crossing illegally.

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Jan 18, 2023·edited Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

ALSO the dying folks are flooding the housing inventory with their estates. Cliff High predicted this two years ago.

Laura Kragie MD biomedworks.substack.com

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

Here's how we'll solve the problem of too many affordable houses:

Convince large numbers of otherwise underemployed people (degraded value of university degrees / jobs shipped overseas) that it's a great way to make a living by buying and selling houses. Flip the same house so many times that a $60,000 house becomes a $450,000 house in a couple years. (While they're at it, tear out all of the unique historical features and replace it with cheap gray linoleum to "increase the modern value".)

These clever house flippers will then be able to reinvest the $390,000 that they have stolen from prospective people who would otherwise have been foolish enough to just buy that $60,000 house to live in. That reinvested money can snap up any other affordable house that comes on the market and up the price.

And hey, if you buy in vibrant arts communities or beautiful nature habitats, you can turn these empty linoleum houses into Air BnBs. You don't live there, so you don't have to paint the house and maintain its condition. Wood rots, loss of historical architectural heritage, no problem for you because your investment value is increasing.

Whole neighborhoods benefit! You grew up and grew old in a vibrant community of $60,000 houses? Well now your house estimated value is $450,000 with property taxes due next week. Find that unaffordable on your small pension? (if the CEO of the company didn't make off with your pension when he claimed his multi-million bonus before tanking the company and shipping jobs overseas.) Can't pay, can't stay.

Now that we mention it, American Real Estate is a gold mine when thinking of the many other volatile and less desirable places where one could end up investing their money. We've got foreign firms hiding behind anonymous front agencies buying up US real estate doing the same thing now.

How about American families who grew up there and now can't afford to buy a house and start a family? Well, there's always a tent.

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

Housing prices in my area of Arizona have almost doubled in five years. Add to that the increase in interest rates and many are excluded from owning a home. Many want their own place whether or not they have children. Give the lack of affordable single family homes, rents have skyrocketed here. So housing costs going down are a plus in the near future. Whether or not you profit from buying depends on when you buy. Those who bought in the last year may not realize a gain if they want to sell within a few years

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

Great Analysis, Thank Igor.

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

Igor, focus on the positive:

Less traffic on the freeways!!!

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Igor Chudov

If all this is a part of the "plan", why do I see alarmed opinions about Vanguard/Blackrock buying off houses?

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The curves should not be linear, but exponential with an exponent below one, since there are children's children, the less people there are the less are born.

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Corporations are people, too, now.

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230 years of historical data, 14 recessions (9 in which home prices declined) tell you all you need to know. Prices always mean regress to the long term historical trend as measured by the P/I ratio. Always.

Up cycles are 14 years. Down cycles are 4 years. On average of course. Prices peaked in May 2022. A return to the historical trend will see prices fall to 2012 levels, in real terms. In nominal terms that means a 25-30 decrease from the May high. And in my view, that is the best case scenario. It could be much much worse.

Last point. It’s not a real estate market. It’s a market of real estate. So different areas will see different results. But if you use the overall national median home price there is nothing in between where we are today and a further decline over the next 2-3 years before the bottom is reached. For those who say “it’s different this time” I would say be careful what you wish for. Because you may be correct. It may be different, and far worse than anyone has so far predicted.

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