Disturbing antivax numbers from the CDC!
Older vaccinated people end up in hospitals 5-6 months after vaccination
SUMMARY: In a CDC selected group of hospitalized patients with “Covid19 like illness”, 86% are vaccinated and only 14% are unvaccinated! My article finds that old people end up in hospitals 5-6 months after vaccination. So read on.
A cute message from CDC came up in my Twitter feed.
This message is self congratulatory, but is also a bit cryptic and requires close reading. They are referring to a recent CDC MMWR study by Catherine H. Bozio, et al.
The study makes the strangest selection of subjects and reports a finding that the CDC wanted:
It reports that among adults hospitalized with “Covid-like illness”, who were actually tested for Covid, more people (in terms of percentage, or relative risk ratio) tested positive for Covid who had previous Covid and no vaccine, compared to those who had a recent vaccination and no previous Covid.
If you think that it is confusing, look at the original text:
Among patients hospitalized with COVID-19–like illness whose previous infection or completion of vaccination occurred 90–179 days earlier, the odds of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were compared between previously infected persons and fully vaccinated mRNA COVID-19 vaccine recipients. aORs and 95% CIs were calculated using multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for age, geographic region, calendar time (days from January 1 to hospitalization), and local virus circulation, and weighted based on propensity to be in the vaccinated category
So, the CDC logic says, congratulations, the vaccine helps avoid Covid and even Covid survivors are more likely to have Covid, compared to recently vaxxed Covid naive in that particular cohort of hospitalized people.
Okay. But why are they all hospitalized? Why are there so many vaccinated hospitalized with pneumonias or needing oxygen?
While I do encourage you to read that article, I have to warn you that it is not for the faint of heart and is written in a very difficult to read style, with paragraph long and complicated sentences, far more daunting than in a typical similar science article.
What it is saying right here, is that out of CDC selected people hospitalized with Covid19 like illness, in the period of Jan-Sep 2021:
1,020 were unvaccinated with a previous Covid infection
6,328 were vaccinated without previous Covid infection
(there were other people who did not fit either of these criteria)
This makes our group to have 7,348 persons (1,020+6,328). In this group of sick people, 86% of sick hospitalized people are vaccinated without previous Covid, and only 14% are unvaccinated who had Covid before.
Hospitalized patients with Covid-like symptoms:
Where do we go from here? The vaccinated here are clearly the ones “clogging the hospitals”, if I am to borrow the mean language of vaccinators. Somehow they are so much less healthy, that 86% of Covid-like illness in this group is in the vaccinated covid naive, compared to unvaccinated Covid survivors!
The CDC provides us with nice data broken down by age and by calendar time. Lots of amazing fodder for thinking.
Looking at numbers by age
The numbers by age show clearly that most admitted (5,367 out of 7,348) are over 65 years of age. No surprise here: old people get sick more. So now we know what to look for: the older people.
Looking at numbers by month
Looking back at the “by month” part above, you can see that these older people got sick roughly five-six months after vaccination. To confirm this, take a look at CDC’s vaccination rate by age chart, specifically for the > 65yrs dashed line:
Compare this with the rate of illness
Look at the numbers of hospitalized people by calendar month:
___________________________Unvaxed(Covid+ count)___Vaxxed (Covid+count)___
The numbers for “Covid-like illness”, landing people in hospitals, really started going up in June and July, whereas the older vulnerable people were vaccinated several months before that, in January-April.
So, it would seem, that somehow, “Covid-like illness” sending people to hospitals, follows and closely tracks vaccination progress with a lag of about 5-6 months.
The numbers presented are NOT total numbers of all hospitalized US persons: they are the numbers that CDC got from several health organizations who provided data for analysis.
The “86% of studied hospitalized persons are vaxxed” percentage is subject to denominator bias, because of CDC’s strange selection of study subjects. There may be fewer “unvaxxed Covid survivors” in older age groups, compared to “vaxxed Covid naive”. You would really need to compare apples with apples and look at all vaccinated and all unvaccinated, which, unfortunately, the CDC study does not provide. Still, the 86% number is alarming and required further investigation.
The most condemning part of the article is the finding that older people over 65 make the great majority of the hospitalized, and their hospitalizations follow vaccination with a 5-6 month lag.