Do you know how many tens of thousands were positive with a runny nose but never even got tested? People there don't have time for coddled first world sniffles tests. The premise here is faulty by a significant factor (3-4x?) for a realistic representation of omicron hospitalizations based on total real cases. Also oxygen in ICU is 10% compared to 70% for delta. Omicron doesn't go to the lungs. It's extremely mild.
Dec 23, 2021·edited Dec 23, 2021Liked by Igor Chudov
This hospital data is what we should expect from a highly contagious pathogen. Until shown otherwise, these are largely low-impact nosocomial infections of people in the hospital for something else.
Spoiler alert: Same goes for Delta
Hospitals are breeding grounds for these infections due to the physical conditions of the indoor spaces and the relatively compromised immune systems of the patients. Same story in nursing homes.
Hospitals are incentivized (in some jurisdictions very highly incentivized) to keep the COVID hysteria flowing. Any ill patient in the hospital long enough is going to acquire an upper respiratory infection eventually. Comingling of 'from' and 'with' allows for the construction of any story you want to tell regarding this disease.
We just don't have the information we need to determine the things we want to know. This is unlikely to change.
We must also consider seasonality. You compared northern hemisphere countries with South Africa. Whereas we in the north are at our winter solstice, South Africa is at their summer solstice. Because COVID and other infectious respiratory illnesses have high seasonal variation, the north-south comparison will become more clear with time.
My niece is a nurse at a medium-large hospital in Amsterdam, Holland. She says it is currently so busy, lots of fainting people coming in, but no one is covid positive (vaccine side effect?) , they only have one positive case! Mind you, Holland is in a hard lockdown. My neighbors' daughter in law, a young stewardess, was rushed a few times to the ER after vaccination, neighbors saying she is not doing well.
My take is that it is very mild based on a surge of cases in my area. A ton of people are getting sick. Some are testing and some aren't but few are headed to hospital and those that do are among the more nervous Nellie count. This differs a a lot from Delta but then again I also thought if was mild. This is just milder. Cold like. Not even a fever now. It's really overrated.
Thank you for your interpretation. Cases are determined by a defective measuring instrument (pcr). And there goes the data and the graphs. From what one can make out, hospitals are very quiet right now. I was at a social event with colleagues recently. One warned afterwards that he tested positive. I developed symptoms a few days later. Then my wife did also. We didn't go for tests and just took our early treatment meds and are both over whatever we had.
I would ask....How many of these people are hospitalized "WITH" Covid vs "FROM" Covid. Does South Africa do a good job of only reporting numbers of people hospitalized due to Covid directly? If it's much more contagious than wouldn't more people being hospitalized for other reasons also test positive given it's rampant spread. My elderly friend was recently hospitalized for bacterial pneumonia and just happened to have a positive PCR for SARS-Cov-2 but had zero Covid symptoms. Doctors were completely uninterested in her positive test results. I am guessing she was still put down as a Covid hospitalization given she had to be put in a Covid room because of the test result.
I heard SA had abandoned testing of asymptomatics. Could that decrease the number of “cases” and thus make the ratio of hospitalizations to cases look higher?
Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Africa
Abstract
Background The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern (VOC) almost completely replaced other variants in South Africa during November 2021, and was associated with a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases. We aimed to assess clinical severity of individuals infected with Omicron, using S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) on the Thermo Fisher Scientific TaqPath COVID-19 PCR test as a proxy. Methods We performed data linkages for (i) SARS-CoV-2 laboratory tests, (ii) COVID-19 case data, (iii) genome data, and (iv) the DATCOV national hospital surveillance system for the whole of South Africa. For cases identified using Thermo Fisher TaqPath COVID-19 PCR, infections were designated as SGTF or non-SGTF. Disease severity was assessed using multivariable logistic regression models comparing SGTF-infected individuals diagnosed between 1 October to 30 November to (i) non-SGTF in the same period, and (ii) Delta infections diagnosed between April and November 2021. Results From 1 October through 6 December 2021, 161,328 COVID-19 cases were reported nationally; 38,282 were tested using TaqPath PCR and 29,721 SGTF infections were identified. The proportion of SGTF infections increased from 3% in early October (week 39) to 98% in early December (week 48). On multivariable analysis, after controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation, individuals with SGTF infection had lower odds of being admitted to hospital compared to non-SGTF infections (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1-0.3). Among hospitalised individuals, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, the odds of severe disease did not differ between SGTF-infected individuals compared to non-SGTF individuals diagnosed during the same time period (aOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.3-1.4). Compared to earlier Delta infections, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, SGTF-infected individuals had a lower odds of severe disease (aOR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.6). Conclusion Early analyses suggest a reduced risk of hospitalisation among SGTF-infected individuals when compared to non-SGTF infected individuals in the same time period, and a reduced risk of severe disease when compared to earlier Delta-infected individuals. Some of this reducton is likely a result of high population immunity.
Dr McCullough posted an interview on covexit with SA dr chatty. Chetty insists
Omi is mild and hospitalization is people with other issues but test positive with covid. he has treated 7,000 patients
And can see the difference between
The other variants and Omi.
Do you know how many tens of thousands were positive with a runny nose but never even got tested? People there don't have time for coddled first world sniffles tests. The premise here is faulty by a significant factor (3-4x?) for a realistic representation of omicron hospitalizations based on total real cases. Also oxygen in ICU is 10% compared to 70% for delta. Omicron doesn't go to the lungs. It's extremely mild.
This hospital data is what we should expect from a highly contagious pathogen. Until shown otherwise, these are largely low-impact nosocomial infections of people in the hospital for something else.
Spoiler alert: Same goes for Delta
Hospitals are breeding grounds for these infections due to the physical conditions of the indoor spaces and the relatively compromised immune systems of the patients. Same story in nursing homes.
Hospitals are incentivized (in some jurisdictions very highly incentivized) to keep the COVID hysteria flowing. Any ill patient in the hospital long enough is going to acquire an upper respiratory infection eventually. Comingling of 'from' and 'with' allows for the construction of any story you want to tell regarding this disease.
We just don't have the information we need to determine the things we want to know. This is unlikely to change.
We must also consider seasonality. You compared northern hemisphere countries with South Africa. Whereas we in the north are at our winter solstice, South Africa is at their summer solstice. Because COVID and other infectious respiratory illnesses have high seasonal variation, the north-south comparison will become more clear with time.
My niece is a nurse at a medium-large hospital in Amsterdam, Holland. She says it is currently so busy, lots of fainting people coming in, but no one is covid positive (vaccine side effect?) , they only have one positive case! Mind you, Holland is in a hard lockdown. My neighbors' daughter in law, a young stewardess, was rushed a few times to the ER after vaccination, neighbors saying she is not doing well.
My take is that it is very mild based on a surge of cases in my area. A ton of people are getting sick. Some are testing and some aren't but few are headed to hospital and those that do are among the more nervous Nellie count. This differs a a lot from Delta but then again I also thought if was mild. This is just milder. Cold like. Not even a fever now. It's really overrated.
Thank you for your interpretation. Cases are determined by a defective measuring instrument (pcr). And there goes the data and the graphs. From what one can make out, hospitals are very quiet right now. I was at a social event with colleagues recently. One warned afterwards that he tested positive. I developed symptoms a few days later. Then my wife did also. We didn't go for tests and just took our early treatment meds and are both over whatever we had.
I would tend to disagree.
There is a very good interview with a researcher from the University of Johannesburg, Pieter Streicher on UnHerd:
https://unherd.com/thepost/deep-data-dive-is-omicron-the-end-of-the-pandemic/
The duration of hospitalization with Omicron is vastly lower than Delta i.e. people are far less sick.
I would ask....How many of these people are hospitalized "WITH" Covid vs "FROM" Covid. Does South Africa do a good job of only reporting numbers of people hospitalized due to Covid directly? If it's much more contagious than wouldn't more people being hospitalized for other reasons also test positive given it's rampant spread. My elderly friend was recently hospitalized for bacterial pneumonia and just happened to have a positive PCR for SARS-Cov-2 but had zero Covid symptoms. Doctors were completely uninterested in her positive test results. I am guessing she was still put down as a Covid hospitalization given she had to be put in a Covid room because of the test result.
If Omicron is in fact milder than Delta then it would also almostly certainly be true that there would be far more uncounted cases.
I heard SA had abandoned testing of asymptomatics. Could that decrease the number of “cases” and thus make the ratio of hospitalizations to cases look higher?
Well, this is rather contradictory given other studies just released claiming hospital admission rates for omicron are just a fifth (!) of those for delta. See this post which refers to a study in SA and to one in the UK: https://dailysceptic.org/2021/12/22/omicron-hospitalisation-rate-just-a-fifth-of-delta-study-from-south-africa-finds/
I don’t really know what to think anymore. In any case, I hope Omicron is mild and helps wipe out the pandemic.
This preprint focused on the exact same topic may be of interest: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.21.21268116v1
Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Africa
Abstract
Background The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern (VOC) almost completely replaced other variants in South Africa during November 2021, and was associated with a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases. We aimed to assess clinical severity of individuals infected with Omicron, using S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) on the Thermo Fisher Scientific TaqPath COVID-19 PCR test as a proxy. Methods We performed data linkages for (i) SARS-CoV-2 laboratory tests, (ii) COVID-19 case data, (iii) genome data, and (iv) the DATCOV national hospital surveillance system for the whole of South Africa. For cases identified using Thermo Fisher TaqPath COVID-19 PCR, infections were designated as SGTF or non-SGTF. Disease severity was assessed using multivariable logistic regression models comparing SGTF-infected individuals diagnosed between 1 October to 30 November to (i) non-SGTF in the same period, and (ii) Delta infections diagnosed between April and November 2021. Results From 1 October through 6 December 2021, 161,328 COVID-19 cases were reported nationally; 38,282 were tested using TaqPath PCR and 29,721 SGTF infections were identified. The proportion of SGTF infections increased from 3% in early October (week 39) to 98% in early December (week 48). On multivariable analysis, after controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation, individuals with SGTF infection had lower odds of being admitted to hospital compared to non-SGTF infections (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1-0.3). Among hospitalised individuals, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, the odds of severe disease did not differ between SGTF-infected individuals compared to non-SGTF individuals diagnosed during the same time period (aOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.3-1.4). Compared to earlier Delta infections, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, SGTF-infected individuals had a lower odds of severe disease (aOR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.6). Conclusion Early analyses suggest a reduced risk of hospitalisation among SGTF-infected individuals when compared to non-SGTF infected individuals in the same time period, and a reduced risk of severe disease when compared to earlier Delta-infected individuals. Some of this reducton is likely a result of high population immunity.
Deaths are the better measure I think. These are 1/4 those of Delta.
The question is, if it isn’t milder, why (when they live ramping up the fear levels) are they telling us it is?