UK Data: Booster efficacy evaporates every week
And Omicron is NOT mild in the UK
It says that the risk of being admitted to hospital (does it mean walk in?) or emergency admission, is approximately 60% of Delta. (see page 23). The risk of “just hospital admission”, curiously, is lower for Omicron and is only 38% that of Delta, so it seems that emergency visits therefore occur more frequently for Omicron compared to Delta.
UKHSA also attempted to clarify risks by using previous covid recovered status. (page 24). Adjusting for higher numbers of Covid recovered, UKHSA concludes:
Including the likelihood of previous infection, in addition to vaccination in their model, they have estimated the intrinsic risk difference between Delta and Omicron as between 0 to 30%
the reduced risk of hospitalisation in those previously infected estimated as 55 to 70%
So the best estimate, based on limited data, is that intrinsically Omicron is not more than 30% less severe as far as hospitalizations. That’s not really “mild” in my book!
Very sad news on the booster front (page 24): the so called “effectiveness” of the booster doses is dropping like a rock every week:
Among those who received an AstraZeneca primary course, vaccine effectiveness was around 60% 2 to 4 weeks after either a Pfizer or Moderna booster, then dropped to 35% with a Pfizer booster and 45% with a Moderna booster by 10 weeks after the booster.
So by 10 weeks, the temporary protection from the booster is melting like dirty snow in summer.
Among those who received a Pfizer primary course, vaccine effectiveness was around 70% after a Pfizer booster, dropping to 45% after 10-plus weeks and stayed around 70 to 75% after a Moderna booster up to 9 weeks after booster.
Soon booster effectiveness will need to be measured by the hour.
All these people wasted their day, waiting in line, pretty much for nothing
Here’s you can see how booster effectiveness starts dropping every week right after the booster dose.
Per page 23, 17 individuals who had boosters 14+ days before Dec 20, sadly were hospitalized. This means that not counting “unlinked” persons, 17/(27+1+7+74+17) = 13.5% of the hospitalized were boosted. By Dec 5, only 20,580,000 were boosted, which is 30% of the population. Since some hospitalizations occurred even before Dec 20, the relevant boosted portion of the population is even smaller.
Considering that Omicron is concentrated (for now) in younger groups 20-39 that received comparatively less boosters than old people (page 19), this means that protection from boosters, if it exists, is marginal or nonexistent. I am not sure if I have enough data to make a convincing calculation.
Also boosters have negative effectiveness in the first two weeks. In fact, as I explained earlier, boosting people at this time is like pouring gasoline on fire.
Thanks for reading Igor’s Newsletter! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.