46 Comments
Oct 28, 2021Liked by Igor Chudov

Thank you, Igor. I wish everyone would read this. Sigh.

Expand full comment

At this point, the fact that the UK is actually publishing its data like this is one of the only reasons I'm chalking all of this COVID nonsense to government incompetence and not conspiracy theories.

Expand full comment

Thank you. I really appreciate what you're doing here. I live in Australia where soon people will require vaccination to use non-essential services (and work most jobs). I feel ashamed of my country right now. Most people support this absurdity and outright discrimination. After all this time people still don't understand what their risk of developing serious symptoms and dying is. I'm so grateful that England is publishing this data (as well as for the new Swedish study). Hopefully the public and govt will wake up to the absurdity soon. It seems that not getting vaccinated and acquiring natural immunity is the best thing I can do for myself and others at this stage.

Expand full comment

Wales claims to be the fourth most jabbed country in the world - more jabbings than England. I think it is about 90% jabbed in all adult age groups. The Welsh population has notorious health problems at the best of times, particularly obesity, respiratory diseases and diabetes. If it is of any interest the Welsh figures are on the Public Health Wales site here:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection/viz/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/latest-information-on-novel-coronavirus-covid-19/

Conveniently Wales does not break its figures down between jabbed and non-jabbed or on age groups. But the Welsh Government has introduced vaccine passports - all parties voted for them recently - and is determined to test, test and jab, jab everyone.

In other words, 90% jabbed Wales could be about to face something truly terrible this coming Winter.

Expand full comment

Great article. Thanks for crunching the numbers. You can also see the effect if you look at the raw numbers from, say, Week 39 compared with Week 43. They clearly show "waning effectiveness" in terms of catching the virus, but your numbers show the effects more dramatically.

This is why the UK government are desperate for people to get their (1st) booster. FIRST booster! This drama has got a long way to go yet! I dread to think what the adverse effects databases are going to look like after we reach boosters 4, 5 and 6.

P.S... just to let you know, the agency publishing these reports is now known as "UK Health Security Agency". I think they got rid of Public Health England. Maybe the name was too friendly ;)

Expand full comment

New study from Sweden confirms the UK data: after about 9 mos. the effectiveness against infection turns NEGATIVE. The vaccine ENHANCES your chances of becoming infected after this length of time. This is the worst fear of ADE being realized. Absolutely IMPERATIVE that this data is confirmed in other countries where the the vaccine has been in use for 9 months or more. Note the advantage of the Swedish study is it COUNTS THE INFECTIONS SINCE AN INDIVIDUAL WAS VACCINATED.

This enables you to see directly how your chances of infection are WORSE when you get past about 9 mos if vaccinated. The UK data only counted overall infections in vaccinated since vaccinated started. They did not specify since time of vaccination.

See the Swedish study discussed here:

Ben M.

@USMortality

New study from Sweden, (preprint) published in The Lancet, reveals that #Covid19 vaccines have a very short lasting effect!

- VE against infection drops below 50% CDC threshold at 5 months (6m for severe)

- VE against infection becomes negative at 8m

#Covid #Corona #Coronavirus

Image

1:23 PM · Oct 28, 2021·Twitter Web App

608 Retweets 121 Quote Tweets 1,125 Likes

https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1453774316143878158?s=20

Robert Clark

Expand full comment

Just excellent, Igor. Thank you for the time and effort it takes to crunch the numbers. And I agree with Andrew below that the more likely reason for this clown show is just garden variety incompetence. Probably mixed with a huge dose of hubris, stupidly believing that they had a thorough enough understanding of the human immune system to force an inadequately tested product onto the population.

Hopefully they'll leave this data source available to you, but I wouldn't count on it. Governments, and their pharmaceutical pals, tend not to like being embarrassed.

Expand full comment

Just a FYI. It is worth having a look at Professor Norman Fenton's twitter threads - @profnfenton on twitter - who is in touch with the ex-nhs statistician "John Dee". It looks like Prof Fenton is inclined to agree with John Dee that there is no evidence the vaccines offer protection.

John Dee's Facebook group is "John Dee's Almanac" group where he posts some interesting figures and analysis.

Expand full comment

do not endure a booster. if you are high risk line up ivermectin or line up regeneron (easy to do in florida).

the cumulative effect of mrna, especially unchanged for new variants, is totally speculative and likely highly dangerous.

Expand full comment

Here's my question. What is the mostly likely outcome here? We know from the past that this mass vaccination campaign can lead to a Marek effect, which would drive the virus towards being more lethal for unvaccinated people. But the spike protein that the mRNA vaccines instruct your body to make have toxic effects as they become dislodged from the cell membrane and travel throughout the body causing blood clots, strokes, heart attacks, etc. Is it likely that the virus will mutate towards being lethal for the unvaccinated, or will enough people succumb to compromised immune systems, and spike protein induced vaccine effects as people take the boosters without question?

Expand full comment

Are the new weekly numbers out yet?

Expand full comment

this from the Daily Mirror today

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/unjabbed-brits-32-times-more-25345629

Have a look at the red/ blue / green lines in the chart. Blue line representing unvaxxed deaths falling sharply. Red line showing 1 dose vaxxed trending upward sharply. in fact they have crossed. Green line with 2 dose vaxxed moving slowly up

Expand full comment

I'd be curious to see whether the shape of the vaccine waning curve matches with data/studies that have already shown that the vaccine efficacy wanes in regard to infection, and whether it's just the position on the y axis that differs. I.e. studies show the efficacy against infection wanes, but never really goes into the negative, whereas the vaccine surveillance data seems to suggest negative efficacy. If the shape of the curves are identical it might suggest that there could be a statistical explanation for why it appears to go into the negative. Perhaps something to do with the way the data is collected, some sociological explanation, like, for instance, unvaccinated people being less likely to take tests, even if sick.

Expand full comment
deletedOct 29, 2021Liked by Igor Chudov
Comment deleted
Expand full comment